"An American Pope? How Global Perceptions of the U.S. Could Shape Vatican History"

"Could the First American Pope Be on the Horizon? How the U.S. Image Might Influence the Decision" 

Despite former President Donald Trump's recent quip that he'd "like to be pope," the likelihood of the next pontiff being American remains slim.

On May 7, the College of Cardinals will gather at the Vatican to elect a successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21 at the age of 88. Of the 266 popes in Catholic Church history, 217 have been Italian. Pope Francis broke tradition by becoming the first pontiff from Latin America—but the United States has yet to produce one.

Nevertheless, two American cardinals are drawing attention ahead of the conclave: Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, a vocal critic of Francis who was dismissed by him in 2014 from his role as head of the Vatican’s highest court; and Cardinal Joseph Tobin, 72, the archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, who was elevated to cardinal by Francis himself.

Trying to predict who will emerge as the next pope is always a bit of a guessing game, but geography may offer some clues.

Melissa Wilde, a sociologist of religion and inequality at the University of Pennsylvania, told USA TODAY that while it’s anyone’s guess what the cardinals will ultimately decide, there are a few likely directions. “It won’t be another Latin American, and it probably won’t be an American,” she said. “But this could be a wild card election. I’d bet on someone from Asia or Africa. If not, maybe an American—if not that, back to an Italian.”

As for the American contenders, some experts are skeptical. Rev. James Bretzke, a theology professor at John Carroll University in Ohio, doesn’t see them going far. He suggested that Cardinal Raymond Burke, known for his sharp criticism of Pope Francis, might pull a few early votes—but those would likely fade quickly. “He might register in the first round or two,” Bretzke said, “then disappear entirely as support shifts to more viable conservative candidates.”

The Pope as Global Diplomat

According to Bretzke, the pope isn’t just a spiritual leader—he’s also a global diplomat. To be effective, the pontiff must be someone the world can accept, and the role itself needs to reflect the Church’s international reach. Historically, Italians were often seen as natural diplomats within the Church, making them more broadly acceptable across ethnic lines. While that dynamic has shifted in recent years, the need for a pope who symbolizes global unity remains just as important.

"Despite any qualifications an American candidate might have, I believe these factors will continue to make it unlikely for an American to be elected pope," Bretzke said. "America's image on the global stage is just too powerful—and to be blunt, it's often seen as negative."

The Rev. Patrick Flanagan, an associate professor of theology and religious studies at St. John’s University in New York, noted that he’s seen various rankings of potential papal candidates, from the “elite eight” to the “fabulous four” and even the latest “May Madness” chart. But he was quick to point out an old saying: “In pope, out cardinal.” In other words, anyone who enters a conclave expecting to be named pope usually leaves the same way they came in—still just a cardinal.

Trump Throws His Hat in the Papal Ring

On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump jokingly expressed interest in becoming the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.

“I’d like to be pope,” Trump told reporters outside the White House. “That would be my No. 1 choice.”

In response, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham couldn’t resist joining in on the fun. He tweeted, “Excited to hear that President Trump is open to the idea of being the next Pope.”

Graham continued, “This would truly be a dark horse candidate, but I’d ask the papal conclave and Catholic faithful to keep an open mind about this possibility! The first Pope-U.S. President combo has many upsides. Watching for white smoke… Trump MMXXVIII!”

Trump also casually floated the idea of Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, as a potential papal candidate, commenting, “There’s someone in New York who’s very good, so we’ll see what happens.”

— Sudiksha Kochi