India and Pakistan's Water War: Rising Tensions Over Scarcity

India Withdraws from Long-Standing Agreement Amid Rising Tensions

On Wednesday, May 7, Indian missiles struck nine targets within Pakistan, killing eight individuals. India justified the action as retaliation for an April terrorist attack that claimed the lives of Indian tourists. In addition to this, India has begun halting the flow of water from the Indus River, raising concerns about the future of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Speculation has surfaced that India may be seeking to undermine the treaty, which has remained intact despite ongoing border tensions.

The Indus Waters Treaty and Its Importance

Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the IWT was designed to regulate water distribution between India and Pakistan across the Indus River system. Under the agreement, India controls the three eastern tributaries (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan controls the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), ensuring that Pakistan receives about 80% of the system’s water resources. The treaty mandates the exchange of information and prohibits either country from unilaterally terminating the agreement.

The course of the river network and its flow through Indian territory gives India significant leverage over Pakistan’s water supply. While there’s no current infrastructure to completely block water flow, India can manipulate its intensity, leading to periodic shortages or surpluses on the Pakistani side. Though legally permissible, such actions understandably raise alarms in Pakistan regarding water security.

Terrorism and Water Tensions

Amid growing water scarcity, India began contemplating the renegotiation of the treaty in 2023. However, recent developments have cast doubt on the future of the agreement. On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack on a tourist resort in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulted in 26 deaths, 25 of which were Indian citizens. Initially, the group The Resistance Front (TRF) claimed responsibility, though they later retracted the statement, citing hacking by groups linked to Indian intelligence services.

In retaliation, India conducted an airstrike on May 7, targeting terrorist infrastructure, which the Indian government defended as an act of national security. Kashmir has long been a flashpoint in the India-Pakistan dispute, with water resources—particularly those from the Indus tributaries that flow through Jammu and Kashmir—playing a significant role in the conflict. India argues that local terrorist activity justifies its control over water resources.

The Global Context: Environmental Degradation and the Water War

The shrinking availability of freshwater is a direct result of disruptions to the natural hydrological cycle, exacerbated by human industrial activity and global climate change. As global temperatures rise, droughts become more prolonged, particularly in arid regions like the Middle East and Asia, which are already vulnerable to hydrological stress.

The "water war" is already taking various forms globally, whether through diplomatic maneuvering or infrastructure investments. In Ethiopia, the Grand Renaissance Dam threatens to limit water flow to Sudan and Egypt, while in the Middle East, the Jordan River remains a contentious issue. But the most serious and perilous situation involves India and Pakistan. Both nations possess nuclear weapons, and the unresolved dispute over the Indus waters remains a significant point of tension. While the risk of nuclear escalation is low, the consequences of such a conflict would be catastrophic.

The Way Forward: Can Water Disputes Be Resolved?

Though tensions are at their highest in years, there remains a possibility for de-escalation. Withholding water for one’s own gain may bring temporary benefits, but it will inevitably harm the neighboring country. In the long term, this can backfire, as the effects of water scarcity are felt beyond borders, ultimately causing harm to those who hoard resources.